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By David Thompson
Political correspondent, BBC News
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To be honest, gatherings of the Parliamentary Labour Party, the PLP, are often a bit of a let-down, journalistically. What happens is, on days of high drama, we all congregate outside the room in the committee corridor of the House of Commons where the meeting takes place and wait with bated breath for the sound of raised voices and breaking furniture. Nine times out of ten, we are bitterly disappointed. The only voices we hear are those laughing sycophantically at the leader's jokes. The fixtures and fittings are only in danger of being damaged from over-enthusiastic expressions of support for the party line. Tonight could be a bit different - not because there is going to be an angry lynch mob waiting for Gordon Brown, but because it will be the first time a serious number of Labour MPs will be gathered together in the same room at the same time. Tight spot A substantial number of his flock would like to get rid of their leader. Forget the usual suspects and the souls brave enough to put their heads above the parapet - there are a lot more out there who would dearly like to see him go. But equally, there are people like Phyllis Starkey, the MP for Milton Keynes South West, who think their colleagues are having a collective nervous breakdown, should pull themselves together and get behind Gordon Brown.
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A new leader would almost certainly mean a snap election
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The shouting match may be between the two extremes rather than at the prime minister, who, while in an undoubtedly tight spot, does have a number of things going for him. It is actually pretty hard to get rid of a Labour leader - you do not just have to have 71 people saying he should go, the same people must also be behind a single alternative candidate. At the moment, there is not a candidate for the rebels to rally round. Secondly, while the dismal local and European election results might increase the pressure on Mr Brown to go, perversely, they also increase the argument against his departure. A new leader would almost certainly mean a snap election. If you were a Labour MP, would you want to face the voters in the middle of a recession and at a time when they are still furious about the expenses scandal?
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Whatever happens tonight will be significant, but will it be decisive?
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Guessing where Labour and their leader will be after tonight's PLP meeting would be a mug's game. Even if Gordon Brown plays a blinder tonight, it is also not the end of the story. There are two tricky by-elections coming up in Glasgow North East and Norwich North. Then there is the plan to sell-off part of the Royal Mail. Concessions are in the offing which Ministers hope will get at least some rebels to swing behind the government, but there is still likely to be a major backbench rebellion. Then there's the Labour party conference in September. Whatever happens tonight will be significant, but will it be decisive? Probably not - but no one, from Gordon Brown down really knows - which is what makes this gathering of the PLP, for once, fascinating.
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