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Last Updated: Tuesday, 13 June 2006, 09:02 GMT 10:02 UK
UK troops face worsening violence
By Alistair Leithead
BBC News, Kabul

UK troops in Afghanistan
The UK mission aims to bring security to the region

The British mission to southern Afghanistan was always going to be a difficult one, and military commanders here knew it would be just a matter of time before they suffered their first casualties.

The violence is worsening - in the last few weeks hundreds of people have died, and in the last two days there have been three significant battles in the south of the country.

Every day the list of dead and injured increases, whether it be through the fighting, which has killed many Afghan security personnel, or assassinations, roadside or suicide bombs.

And the south of the country has recently become the most dangerous.

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The Canadian troops who have had responsibility for neighbouring Kandahar province and commanding the whole south for the last few months have already lost nine people this year.

Fighting 'peak'

As the British deployment began, senior officers were talking about a peak in fighting which would coincide with their arrival in Helmand province. They were worried by how long this would last and at what cost.

Over the last four-and-a-half years there have been just a handful of US-led coalition troops on the ground in Helmand and now there are thousands of soldiers with a mission to help the Afghan authorities bring security to an area which is outside government control.

The British forces say that their presence is disturbing the status quo and will no doubt provoke a reaction from "people who just don't want us to be there."

This means criminals working in the illegal opium trade, local warlords and of course the Taleban fighters, who appear to have been expanding in numbers over the past few months.

They are, however, still confident that people broadly support the coalition and the Nato-led force and want the international community here - a big difference to the perception in Iraq.

Taleban influence

But sources in Helmand say there is not one district in the province which does not come under Taleban influence and there are many areas where they are "in control."

Until people start to see things changing they are unlikely to stop supporting, or at the very least tolerating, the Taleban fighters in their villages.

On the whole this means they openly move around and are a serious presence - enough to intimidate local people and for them to see the Taleban as the real power rather than the government.

It takes little more than a pick-up truck full of armed Taleban fighters driving down the main street to make that point.

But some villages are no-go areas for the police and army, particularly at night, and it is these the British forces are helping to secure - an incredibly difficult task.

It is easy enough to send the Paras into an area with the Afghan National Army, clash with and drive out Taleban militia, especially with the help of air-power, but then what?

When the troops pull back to base, the Taleban simply come back a few days later and it starts all over again.

The way the British troops are dealing with this is to set up a well protected compound in the town or village and help the police and army establish a base and maintain a small presence.

But Helmand is four times the size of Wales. There are many towns and villages and with just a couple of thousand British troops supporting an inexperienced national army this constant expansion becomes difficult.

The whole point of the mission is to bring security and then almost immediately roll out development programmes, to show people that by supporting the government and the British forces their lives will improve.

The Department for International Development and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office are working closely with the military to achieve this. Tens of millions of pounds have been made available.

But for the moment the security situation is just not good enough to roll out these programmes and until people start to see things changing they are unlikely to stop supporting, or at the very least tolerating, the Taleban fighters in their villages.

Public opinion

The Taleban government was born out of the religious scholars in southern Afghanistan where their conservative views are normal and where, despite the barbaric rules, they did bring security.

That is what people most want at the moment.

A senior British military commander describes the mission in Helmand as "to win the support of the floating voter" - the 80% of people who want security and change and will support whoever can provide it.

At the moment the opinion polls show disappointment with what the democratic government has done or what all the billions of pounds of aid money has brought people.

There's no doubt the British forces who will be working under Nato have a great opportunity to make a difference.

But their success will depend on how long this "peak" of resistance goes on for, how much damage the Taleban fighters can do and ultimately what losses the British and other international forces can take before public opinion at home starts to question and threaten their continued involvement in the mission.




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