Report highlights dissident danger

By Mark Simpson BBC News

Of the thousands of words written about dissident republicans in the latest Independent Monitoring Commission report, two phrases stand out - "highly dangerous" and "ruthless determination".

Although the Real IRA and Continuity IRA have not tried to shoot anyone since they murdered two soldiers and a policeman in March, the report implies it is only a matter of time.

The name Oglaigh na hEireann has been used by several dissident groups

One of the key questions being asked in the immediate aftermath of the three killings was whether the dissidents were capable of the type of prolonged campaign the IRA perpetrated in the 1970s, 80s and 90s?

"In terms of comparison, they don't compare," said John Grieve, a member of the four-man Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC).

He should know what he is talking about when it comes to the IRA. Mr Grieve used to be head of the anti-terrorist squad at the Metropolitan Police. He was in the post when the IRA bombed Canary Wharf in 1996.

He believes the threat posed by dissident republicans is significant, but points out they do not have the same resources or support as the IRA used to possess.

"I don't think they have the capability for a sustained campaign," he said.

"That doesn't mean that they are not, over individual acts, extremely dangerous but in terms of comparison they don't compare."

He was speaking at the IMC's news conference held on Thursday at Belfast's Europa Hotel, which coincidentally was one of the IRA's favourite targets during the Troubles.

They are of course being used by the cowards who run these organisations to do their dirty work, and risk decades in prison for a so-called 'cause' they simply don't understand Sir Hugh Orde

Belfast is barely recognisable now compared to the bomb-scarred city it used to be. Driving past the Europa every 15 minutes are red open-top buses filled with tourists from Europe and beyond.

Even though the news of the recent killings made international headlines, the violence doesn't appear to have deterred the visitors.

Tourist chiefs are even hoping that the fall in the value of the pound against the Euro will persuade some people from mainland UK to come to Northern Ireland this summer rather than France or Spain.

In the wake of the recent murders, politicians on all sides insisted that the peace process was intact, and that the 'new Northern Ireland' would survive. That message seems to have got through.

Patrick Azimkar and Mark Quinsey were murdered by the Real IRA

Dissident republicans have very little support. They seem to recognise this themselves and have therefore avoided putting their political views to the test in next month's European election.

It seems they do not want to risk public humiliation, but privately they are still trying to whip up support. They are targeting young unemployed males in places like Lurgan and Derry.

Northern Ireland's chief constable, Sir Hugh Orde, highlighted the problem earlier this week.

"I know that small numbers of young people are being recruited," he said.

"They are of course being used by the cowards who run these organisations to do their dirty work, and risk decades in prison for a so-called 'cause' they simply don't understand."

Sir Hugh is due to leave the top job in September. But there is no sign of the dissidents going away.

The IMC report states that they're training, recruiting and attempting to buy more weapons. They're also involved in drug dealing, kidnappings, robberies, extortion and even brothel-keeping.

The dissident threat is said to be higher now than at any time in the past five years.

Mind you, the report adds an important piece of context, saying "it does not represent an unravelling of the peace process".

It could be argued that, if anything, recent events have shown that the peace process is stronger and much more resilient than many people had thought.

However encouraging that may be, it is scant consolation for the families of soldiers Patrick Azimkar and Mark Quinsey, and police officer Stephen Carroll.

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