Jihohin da Peter Obi zai iya fuskantar ƙalubale a 2027

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Lokacin karatu: Minti 4

Yayin da ake ci gaba da tattaunawa kan nasarar da haɗakar siyasa tsakanin Peter Obi da Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso gabanin zaɓen 2027 za ta iya samarwa wa jam'iyyar hamayya ta NDC, tambayar da masu lura da al'amuran yau da kullum ke yi ita ce wace irin karɓuwa ɗan takarar zai samu a wasu jihohin Najeriya.

Duk da yiwuwar samun rinjaye a wasu jihohin da ya fuskanci ƙalubale a 2023, har yanzu akwai manyan jihohi da za su kasance filin daga ga ɗan takarar na NDC.

Duk da cewa a harkar gudanar zaɓe kaamr yadda Hausawa ke faɗi wai 'ba a sanin maci tuwo sai miya ta ƙare, kasancewar duk wani da za a faɗi kan ɗan takara a yanzu zai zama hasashe ne kawai.

BBC ta tattauna da Farfesa Kamilu Sani Fagge, malami a jami'ar Bayero da ke Kano kuma mai nazarin kimiyyar siyasa dangane da jihohin da ka iya zama ƙalubale ga ɗan takarar na NDC.

Kaduna

Kaduna na daga cikin jihohin da ke iya zama filin gwajin ƙarfin Obi a Arewa. Jihar tana da yawan masu jefa ƙuri'a kuma tana ɗaya daga cikin jihohin da ke haɗa Arewa da Kudu ta fuskar siyasa.

Duk ɗan takarar da ke neman gina gada tsakanin yankunan biyu zai buƙaci yin tasiri a can to amma jam'iyyar APC mai mulki ce ke jagoranci a jihar, inda a can ne ma shugaba Bola Tinubu ya ƙaddamar da gangamin fara kamfe ɗinsa.

A zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na Najeriya na shekarar 2023 a Peter Obi na jam'iyyar LP ya samu ƙuri'u 294,494 a Jihar Kaduna.

Katsina

Jihar haihuwar tsohon shugaban ƙasa Muhammadu Buhari tana daga cikin wuraren da APC ta daɗe tana da ƙarfi tun bayan kafa jam'iyyar a 2014.

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Duk da sauye-sauyen siyasa da ake gani, samun gagarumin rinjaye a Katsina na iya zama ƙalubale ga Obi.

A zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na 2023 a Jihar Katsina, Peter Obi na jam'iyyar LP ya samu ƙuri'u 6,376

Jigawa

Jigawa na da tarihin goyon bayan manyan jam'iyyu ko kuma jam'iyya mai mulki. Masana siyasa na ganin cewa NDC ko wata haɗaka da Obi zai jagoranta za ta buƙaci gagarumin aiki a matakin ƙasa domin samun karɓuwa sosai a jihar.

A zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na shekarar 2023 a Jihar Jigawa, Peter Obi na jam'iyyar LP ya samu ƙuri'u 1,889.

Bauchi

Bauchi tana daga cikin jihohin da sakamakonta kan kasance mai tasiri a zaɓen shugaban ƙasa.

Idan Obi yana son nuna cewa yana samun ci gaba a Arewa maso Gabas, Bauchi za ta kasance ɗaya daga cikin wuraren da za a fi sa ido a kai.

Jam'iyyar APM ce dai ke iko da jihar Bauchi bayan ficewa daga jam'iyyar PDP. Ana ganin gwamna Bala Muhamamd wanda ke kammala wa'adinsa na biyu, zai yi iya ƙarfinsa wajen ganin jam'iyyar tasa ta yi kataɓus duk kuwa da cewa jam'iyyar APC ma za ta yi bakin ƙoƙarinta wajen ƙwace iko da jihar.

A zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na shekarar 2023 a Jihar Bauchi, Peter Obi na jam'iyyar LP ya samu ƙuri'u 27,373

Borno da Yobe

Waɗannan jihohi sun daɗe suna nuna goyon baya ga jam'iyyar APC, kuma suna daga cikin wuraren da Obi zai iya fuskantar gwagwarmayar neman kuri'u, musamman idan ba a samu manyan sauye-sauyen siyasa ba kafin 2027.

A Jihar Borno, Peter Obi na jam'iyyar LP ya samu ƙuri'u 7,205. Bola Ahmed Tinubu ya samu 252,282, yayin da Atiku Abubakar ya samu 190,921.

A Jihar Yobe mai maƙwabtaka, Peter Obi ya samu ƙuri'u 2,406. Atiku Abubakar ya samu 198,567, yayin da Bola Ahmed Tinubu ya samu 151,459.

Benue

Tasirin gwamnatin jihar Benue a ƙarƙashin iko jam'iyyar APC, sannan kuma kasancewar gwamnati na da tasiri sosai a siyasar jihar, ya sa

Duk wani ɗan takarar adawa zai yi ƙoƙarin karya wannan tsarin siyasa.

A zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na shekarar 2023 a Jihar Benue, Peter Obi na jam'iyyar LP ya samu ƙuri'u 308,372.

Rivers

Tasirin manyan 'yan siyasa irin su Nyesom Wike na da tasiri sosai a Rivers. Duk wani ɗan takara da ba shi da cikakken goyon bayan manyan masu ruwa da tsaki a jihar zai iya fuskantar ƙalubale wajen samun ƙuri'un da za su bai wa ɗan takara nasara.

Sai dai bisa ala'akari da zaɓen 2023, Obi ya samu ƙuri'u masu yawa a jihar ta Rivers.

A sakamakon da INEC ta sanar na zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na 2023 a Jihar ta Rivers, Peter Obi na jam'iyyar LP ya samu ƙuri'u 175,071, inda Bola Ahmed Tinubu na APC ya samu 231,591.

Jihohin kudu maso yamma

Farfesa Kamilu Sani Fagge ya bayyana wasu dalilai guda biyu da ya ce su ne za su hana ɗan takarar jam'iyyar NDC samun damar taka cikakkiyar rawa a jihohi biyar na kudu maso yammaci ban da jihar Legas.

  • Tasirin Tinubu a yankin Kudu maso Yamma inda nan ne tushen siyasar shugaban na Najeriya.
  • Batun "ɗan yankinmu": Masu kaɗa ƙuri'a da dama a yankin na iya fifita ɗan takarar da suka ga yana wakiltar muradun Yarabawa. Idan Tinubu ko wani ɗan takarar APC daga yankin ya tsaya, Obi na iya fuskantar wannan ƙalubalen.

A zaɓen 2023, a cikin jihohin Kudu maso Yamma guda 6, Peter Obi ya yi nasara ne kawai a jihar Legas, inda ya samu ƙuri'u mafi yawa a jihar.

Jadawalin ƙuri'un da Peter Obi ya samu a jihohin kudu maso yamma:

  • Lagos – 582,454
  • Ogun – 85,829
  • Oyo – 99,110
  • Osun – 23,283
  • Ondo – 4,405
  • Ekiti – 11,397