A showery end to September but autumn warmth continues

Outbreaks of rain will affect many parts of the UK on Wednesday but it will remain warmer than normal for the final day of September.

After a muggy start, temperatures are expected to climb into the low twenties Celsius in many locations.

However, it is not expected to reach the 28C that was recorded on Tuesday and it will feel fresher with lower levels of humidity.

It will round off yet another warmer-than-average month - in a year that is expected to end up as one of the UK's warmest on record.

A band of heavy rain that has been moving eastwards overnight will linger in parts of eastern England and north-east Scotland until around Wednesday lunchtime.

Behind it, sunny spells will develop along with a scattering of showers, especially in western England, Wales, Northern Ireland and western Scotland.

Some of the downpours will be heavy and possibly thundery, accompanied by rather blustery winds.

Fresher air will move eastwards across the UK during the day, sweeping away the humidity.

After an exceptionally warm start to the morning, any sunshine will readily lift temperatures well above the norm for the final day of September.

Average late-September and early-October highs range from 13C in northern Scotland to 18C in southern England.

Wednesday night will be cooler with single-digit lows in places - and a fresher start to Thursday will mean afternoon temperatures are not as high for the first day of October.

However, values will still be around 1-3C above the seasonal average in many locations.

Most areas will be dry and sunny with just a few scattered showers.

Showery rain will become more widespread on Friday but will mostly affect northern and western parts of the UK - with southern and eastern areas likely to remain largely dry.

A drought was declared across all of Wales and over two-thirds of England during the summer, which was confirmed as the UK's hottest on record.

While south-west Wales is now seeing signs of recovery, external and has been moved out of official drought status by Natural Resources Wales, the same is not true of other areas.

Indeed, the Environment Agency has said that England would need above average rainfall for the next seven months to fully recover from drought.

Met Office figures show that, up until 27 September, England and Wales as a whole had fallen well short of that target, recording 58% of the typical September rainfall.

Some individual locations have been even drier than that.

In Scotland and Northern Ireland it is a different story with both nations having seen more than their usual September rainfall.

Up until the morning of 29 September, Kinlochewe, Highland had recorded 180% of its average for the month while Aldergrove, Co. Antrim had received 127% of its typical total.

After showers on Thursday and Friday, high pressure is set to build to the south of the UK during the weekend.

It means many parts of England and Wales, where rain is most-needed, are likely to be mostly dry for much of the weekend.

The greatest chance of wet weather will be in Northern Ireland and Scotland but even here it is unlikely to be a washout.

Temperatures are likely to remain just above the seasonal average.

The start of next week looks like being dry for much of the time, especially in the south, but beyond that there is uncertainty with some computer forecast models suggesting a spell of lower pressure and more rain.

The Met Office's longer-term outlook for the period from October to December suggests a greater-than-normal chance of mild and wet weather in the late autumn and early winter.

However, long-range forecasting is fraught with uncertainty - meaning this is far from guaranteed.