More or Less, 14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts

More or Less

14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts

15 August 2026

Available for over a year

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid.

The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department.

This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths.

But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more.

If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact [email protected]

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Series Producer: Tom Colls

Editor: Richard Vadon

Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound Mix: Neil Churchill