How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance?

We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: [email protected]

CONTRIBUTORS:

Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC

David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University

Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University

CREDITS:

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Producer: Josh McMinn

Series producer: Tom Colls

Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Sound mix: Dave O'Neill

Editor: Richard Vadon